Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally: BTC Rebounds to Seven-Day Highs — Can It Break $95K?
The Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally of 2024 has surprised many traders as BTC surged 13% from its recent low of $80,000, reclaiming the $90K level ahead of the holiday. This rebound has reignited hopes that Bitcoin could push back toward the critical $95K zone — and possibly print its strongest Thanksgiving close ever.
With holiday volatility, historical patterns, fragile market structure and macro uncertainty all in play, analysts are divided: will the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally push BTC into a new bullish phase, or is another rejection likely?
In this detailed analysis, we explore Bitcoin’s price action, key technical levels, historical behavior during Thanksgiving, and what traders should watch for this weekend.
📈 Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally Begins With a Strong Rebound
The current Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally started as BTC bounced sharply from the $80,000 multi-month low. By Wednesday, Bitcoin touched $91,000–$92,000, surprising traders expecting muted holiday movement.
Data from TradingView and Cointelegraph Markets Pro confirms BTC entered Thursday around $91,400, with bullish momentum carrying from the pre-holiday pump.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted an interesting pattern:
The Wednesday before Thanksgiving has always been bullish — but the Thursday often turns bearish.
Traders are watching closely to see whether the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally finally breaks this pattern.
📉 Historical Thanksgiving Performance: Can BTC Defy the Trend?
Bitcoin has a mixed — mostly bearish — record on Thanksgiving Day.
According to Daan Crypto Trades:
- Bitcoin has only closed Thanksgiving in the green 2 out of the last 10 years
- Major declines happened in 2018 and 2020
- Average Thanksgiving return: –0.8%
That’s why the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally of 2024 is drawing extra attention. BTC sits close to its previous Thanksgiving all-time high of ~$95,000 (from Nov. 28, 2024).
Analyst Terence Michael noted:
“We’ve never had a $100K Bitcoin Thanksgiving — be prepared for anything.”
This adds psychological importance to the present rally, especially with BTC only 4% below its strongest holiday close.
⚠️ Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally Faces Resistance at $91K–$93K
While the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally has been strong, analysts warn that BTC is approaching a crucial resistance band between $91,000 and $93,000.
Analyst Jelle notes:
- BTC has printed its “first meaningful bounce in a long time”
- But sideways “holiday chop” is expected until markets reopen
- Price remains fragile despite the rebound
This aligns with derivatives data showing caution among traders — a factor that could either fuel a squeeze upward or increase risk of reversal.
💹 Main Question — Can the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally Push BTC Above $95K?
Whether Bitcoin can break $95K during this year’s Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally depends on:
1. Weekend liquidity
Holiday periods usually mean thin trading books — making large candles more likely.
2. Macro uncertainty
Analysts highlight three major headwinds:
- Unclear Federal Reserve interest rate path
- Sticky inflation concerns
- Derivative market stress
These factors have capped BTC’s upside for the last month.
3. Technical resistance
The $95K level is close to the November prior high, making it a psychological barrier and a major liquidity zone.
If Bitcoin clears $95K, the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally could extend into the $100K–$105K region quickly.
📊 On-Chain Indicators Signal Fragility Despite the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally
On-chain data provider Glassnode warns that, despite the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally, the market structure remains weak.
Key findings:
- Bitcoin lost the 50-week moving average, a major long-term support line
- Short-term holder realized losses are very high
- STH loss ratios dropped to 0.07x, indicating fading liquidity
- Weak inflows suggest demand is not yet strong enough to sustain a long-term rally
Glassnode compared the current structure to early 2022, when Bitcoin fell sharply after losing major support.
Their caution:
If weak liquidity persists, BTC risks revisiting the True Market Mean near $81K — even if the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally pushes temporarily higher.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch During the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally
Bitcoin’s next moves during the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally hinge on whether it can reclaim or hold these zones:
🔵 Immediate Resistance: $91K–$93K
Currently testing this range; rejection could send price back toward $88K.
🟠 Major Breakout Zone: $95K
A close above $95K would mark:
- The highest-ever Thanksgiving close
- A break of holiday historical patterns
- A strong bullish signal for December
🟢 Critical Bullish Reclaim: $100K–$105K
This range includes:
- The 50-week moving average
- Short-term holder realized price
Reclaiming this zone would signal a new bullish phase.
🔴 Key Support: $80K–$81K
If the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally fails and liquidity dries up, BTC could retest:
- True Market Mean
- Previous multi-month lows
A break under $80K would risk a deeper corrective phase.
Some external useful links
🎉 Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally
The Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally of 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most important in years. With BTC trading near critical resistance and only steps away from its highest-ever Thanksgiving close, traders are watching closely.
However, underlying fragility, low liquidity, and macro pressures mean volatility may increase sharply over the holiday.
If Bitcoin breaks above $95K and reclaims the $100K–$105K zone, the Bitcoin Thanksgiving Rally could mark the beginning of a powerful year-end rally. But if resistance holds, BTC could revisit the $80K zone before recovering.
Either way, Thanksgiving 2025 is set to be a decisive chapter for Bitcoin’s long-term trend.
